IMD Monsoon Forecast 2025: India Likely to Receive 105% Rainfall—Another Good Year Ahead?

As summer heat intensifies, there’s a silver lining on the horizon—India is all set to experience another above-normal monsoon season in 2025. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country could receive 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall between June and September, indicating a season of plentiful rains.

If this forecast comes true, it would be the fifth time in the last seven years that India will receive normal or above-normal rainfall, and the second consecutive year of ‘above-normal’ monsoon, a rare but welcome trend for agriculture, water supply, and the overall economy.

🌧️ What Does the IMD Say?

In its first long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD announced that India is expected to receive over 91 cm of rainfall this season—105% of the LPA, which stands at 87 cm. This prediction is based on favorable climate indicators such as:

• Neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

• Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

• Lower-than-average snow cover in the northern hemisphere, including Eurasia

These factors historically contribute to robust and well-distributed monsoon rainfall across the subcontinent.

📊 Monsoon Forecast 2025 at a Glance

🗺️ Which Regions Will Benefit the Most?

IMD’s data shows that most parts of the country are likely to enjoy good rainfall—except for Tamil Nadu, parts of Bihar and Jharkhand, and the northeastern states, where rainfall may be slightly lower than average.

🌿 Regions likely to receive abundant rains include:

• Eastern Maharashtra

• Southern Madhya Pradesh

• Chhattisgarh

• Telangana

• Andhra Pradesh

These central and peninsular regions are vital for India’s agricultural output, making this forecast particularly encouraging.

🔬 Why Are These Predictions So Important?

Around 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season. This water is critical for:

• Irrigation in agriculture

• Drinking water supplies

• Hydropower generation

• Industry and rural livelihoods

Moreover, IMD’s April predictions have become more accurate over the years. Between 2021 and 2024, the average deviation from the forecast was just 2.27%, well within the accepted range. A second update in May will provide more precise information, including monthly rainfall patterns and regional forecasts.

🌊 ENSO, IOD & Snow Cover: The Climate Trio Driving the Monsoon

Let’s break down the three major climate factors influencing India’s rainfall:

• ENSO (El Niño/La Niña):

  • El Niño = Warming in Pacific Ocean = Bad for Indian monsoon

  • La Niña = Cooling = Good for rainfall

  • Current Status: Neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña)

• IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole):

  • Positive IOD (warmer Arabian Sea) = Boosts monsoon

  • Current Status: Neutral — but not adverse

• Snow Cover:

  • Less snow in Eurasia = Better rainfall in India

  • Current Condition: Below Normal

According to M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, “All conditions are currently aligned in favor of a strong and consistent monsoon.”

📅 What’s Next?

The May update from IMD will shed more light on:

• Rainfall distribution in North, South, East, and West India

• Expected monsoon onset date, usually June 1 over Kerala

• Monthly rainfall estimates across all regions

Until then, the current data offers a strong reason for optimism in agriculture, water conservation planning, and energy production.